The reason the interstellar travellers could be lapped by later voyagers is that the already-departed travellers could not adopt the new propulsion technology developed on Earth. With AI, however, when there's a new model released, the projects currently in progress can adopt that model, bringing with them their understanding of the problem domain, their curated datasets, their tailored evaluations, etc.
The lesson here may be more "be ready to adopt progress as it arrives" than "wait".
This was a good insight. However, I hope people don't confuse "wait" with "don't". Even if a task is likely to be achievable by an AI, doing the learning phase of a project is still valuable so we can evaluate the results.
I started working on a novel a year and a half ago. Six months ago, I shifted my strategy: Instead of writing the actual novel, I'm spending my time working out the structural elements (a detailed plot summary, the theme and subthemes and relationship of the characters to the theme), writing background world-building memos and character descriptions, etc.
My theory is that Claude and GPT-4 can already write passably good scenes given the appropriate context, and I bet GPT-4.5 will be able to write very good scenes. But right now it seems like we're a lot farther away from an AI that can make 100,000 words of complex world-building and plot hang together in creative and theme-driven ways. (And that's also the part I think I'm relatively strong at.) So I'm working on that part, to create the background docs to feed into AI to then draft the scenes.
If there's nothing better than GPT-4 when I'm ready to draft scenes, that's what I'll use. And if there's something better, well, amazing! And if there's something that's better *on its own* at writing an entire complex sci-fi novel from scratch than it can with my background work + my guidance and feedback, then I guess we'll all be out of jobs and the entire publishing industry will be in danger anyway.
There are several product ideas I've had in the past that now seem more attainable with advances in artificial intelligence. However, I think if you have an idea you're sufficiently motivated to do, you should do it. Don't fall into the trap of inaction.
This is yet another reason why generative AI turns conventional AI wisdom on its head. With the machine learning based models of the last 15 years, there was a strong first mover advantage. The quicker you deploy the quicker, you get feedback and more data, the quicker you can retrain the model to be better. Rinse and repeat.
With generative AI, deploying early, doesn't have nearly the same advantages. Sure, if you collect user behaviour on your generative AI tool you can use it to fine tune the model better. But any improvements from this process pale in comparison to simply waiting for a better model to come out.
Wait calculations were being done with respect to really long running computationally intensive tasks in the mid 1980s. It seemed like a well established concept even then.
Never. Because every minute you spend working towards achieving a goal, big or small, will be a learning experience.
Yes, AI will make your use of *tools and processes* obsolete, sooner or later. And it will no doubt change and reframe your work and thinking.
Whatever you do before AI one-ups you is NOT a loss. AI can never recreate the personal, internal, and unique life lessons & expertise that your efforts will have yielded.
great food for thought and i appreciated you providing both sides of the coin regarding a decision to delaying current work and waiting for AI development.
Any use cases you can think of that can benefit in waiting for chatgpt 5 (that chatpgt4 can do but with a workaround approach?)
I think most people that are interested in AI at the moment would find it very hard to play the waiting game with the current AI models due to the action cognitive bias (our automatic tendency to take action, even when the better choice may be holding off on doing anything at all.). The GPTs feature makes it so easy to experiment so i find that makes waiting even harder as well.
1. AI-Assisted Personal Development Tools: Advanced AI models could provide personalized tools for self-improvement and mindfulness practices, aligning with your interest in the noble eightfold path and core values like mindfulness and temperance.
2. Data Visualization and Analysis Enhancements: Future AI advancements might offer more sophisticated data visualization and analysis tools, benefiting your work as a data analyst and interest in quantitative data analysis.
3. Interactive AI for Intellectual Discussions: AI capable of deeper, more nuanced conversations could enhance your desire for intellectually stimulating discussions, possibly in areas related to your favorite books and role models.
4. AI in Strategic Thinking and Decision-Making: As AI evolves, it could better assist in applying strategic forecast mental models and pre-mortem thinking, aiding in complex decision-making and expanding your Circle of Competence.
5. AI-Driven Chess and Soccer Analysis: More advanced AI might provide in-depth analysis and strategy development for chess and soccer, aligning with your leisure interests and aiding in performance improvement in these activities.
Will you be sharing the prompts you used for the Innovator and Negotiator? I am working on something similar for Career Counseling, but clearly am lacking some prompting expertise. Thanks
Another really useful piece Ethan. I really appreciate you sharing these insights and experiences. There is a lot of hype and nonsense flying around about AI and it's super helpful to have your grounded input.
For me we seem to continue to miss a simple truth in all of this. Namely that anything we create using AI to help us is designed for consumption by other humans (not by other AI). Logically this means that any and all AI output is designed, evaluate and delivered on the basis that it serves some human purpose or other. I have seen loads of ChatGPT output that isn't fit for purpose but is posted or used by people who clearly don't know what they are doing and don't even realise that they don't know what they are doing. ChatGPT can't help with that :-)
I actually think we have hit a bit of a bump in the road. The chat AI's only do so much. It still takes a creative, hardworking person pushing the AI. I *do* think there are some really creative people creating systems for normal people to use. Love this blog.
The reason the interstellar travellers could be lapped by later voyagers is that the already-departed travellers could not adopt the new propulsion technology developed on Earth. With AI, however, when there's a new model released, the projects currently in progress can adopt that model, bringing with them their understanding of the problem domain, their curated datasets, their tailored evaluations, etc.
The lesson here may be more "be ready to adopt progress as it arrives" than "wait".
This was a good insight. However, I hope people don't confuse "wait" with "don't". Even if a task is likely to be achievable by an AI, doing the learning phase of a project is still valuable so we can evaluate the results.
imminent, not "immanent"
As Francois Candelon says there are two ways to implement genAi. Too early or too late :-)
Alexandr Wang wrote something along similar lines: https://alexw.substack.com/p/betting-on-unknown-unknowns
Ethan, this is a good one.
I have performed my own Wait Calculation on elbow and knee surgery, and I'm honestly surprised more folks don't do that as a matter of course.
I started working on a novel a year and a half ago. Six months ago, I shifted my strategy: Instead of writing the actual novel, I'm spending my time working out the structural elements (a detailed plot summary, the theme and subthemes and relationship of the characters to the theme), writing background world-building memos and character descriptions, etc.
My theory is that Claude and GPT-4 can already write passably good scenes given the appropriate context, and I bet GPT-4.5 will be able to write very good scenes. But right now it seems like we're a lot farther away from an AI that can make 100,000 words of complex world-building and plot hang together in creative and theme-driven ways. (And that's also the part I think I'm relatively strong at.) So I'm working on that part, to create the background docs to feed into AI to then draft the scenes.
If there's nothing better than GPT-4 when I'm ready to draft scenes, that's what I'll use. And if there's something better, well, amazing! And if there's something that's better *on its own* at writing an entire complex sci-fi novel from scratch than it can with my background work + my guidance and feedback, then I guess we'll all be out of jobs and the entire publishing industry will be in danger anyway.
There are several product ideas I've had in the past that now seem more attainable with advances in artificial intelligence. However, I think if you have an idea you're sufficiently motivated to do, you should do it. Don't fall into the trap of inaction.
This is yet another reason why generative AI turns conventional AI wisdom on its head. With the machine learning based models of the last 15 years, there was a strong first mover advantage. The quicker you deploy the quicker, you get feedback and more data, the quicker you can retrain the model to be better. Rinse and repeat.
With generative AI, deploying early, doesn't have nearly the same advantages. Sure, if you collect user behaviour on your generative AI tool you can use it to fine tune the model better. But any improvements from this process pale in comparison to simply waiting for a better model to come out.
Wait calculations were being done with respect to really long running computationally intensive tasks in the mid 1980s. It seemed like a well established concept even then.
"Should you wait?"
Never. Because every minute you spend working towards achieving a goal, big or small, will be a learning experience.
Yes, AI will make your use of *tools and processes* obsolete, sooner or later. And it will no doubt change and reframe your work and thinking.
Whatever you do before AI one-ups you is NOT a loss. AI can never recreate the personal, internal, and unique life lessons & expertise that your efforts will have yielded.
great food for thought and i appreciated you providing both sides of the coin regarding a decision to delaying current work and waiting for AI development.
Any use cases you can think of that can benefit in waiting for chatgpt 5 (that chatpgt4 can do but with a workaround approach?)
I think most people that are interested in AI at the moment would find it very hard to play the waiting game with the current AI models due to the action cognitive bias (our automatic tendency to take action, even when the better choice may be holding off on doing anything at all.). The GPTs feature makes it so easy to experiment so i find that makes waiting even harder as well.
I asked my personal GPT (Dan 2.0, https://chat.openai.com/g/g-56DoRUOE4-dan-2-0-gpt ) for some personal use cases of AI where waiting might make more sense and it came back with the following.
1. AI-Assisted Personal Development Tools: Advanced AI models could provide personalized tools for self-improvement and mindfulness practices, aligning with your interest in the noble eightfold path and core values like mindfulness and temperance.
2. Data Visualization and Analysis Enhancements: Future AI advancements might offer more sophisticated data visualization and analysis tools, benefiting your work as a data analyst and interest in quantitative data analysis.
3. Interactive AI for Intellectual Discussions: AI capable of deeper, more nuanced conversations could enhance your desire for intellectually stimulating discussions, possibly in areas related to your favorite books and role models.
4. AI in Strategic Thinking and Decision-Making: As AI evolves, it could better assist in applying strategic forecast mental models and pre-mortem thinking, aiding in complex decision-making and expanding your Circle of Competence.
5. AI-Driven Chess and Soccer Analysis: More advanced AI might provide in-depth analysis and strategy development for chess and soccer, aligning with your leisure interests and aiding in performance improvement in these activities.
Will you be sharing the prompts you used for the Innovator and Negotiator? I am working on something similar for Career Counseling, but clearly am lacking some prompting expertise. Thanks
Another really useful piece Ethan. I really appreciate you sharing these insights and experiences. There is a lot of hype and nonsense flying around about AI and it's super helpful to have your grounded input.
For me we seem to continue to miss a simple truth in all of this. Namely that anything we create using AI to help us is designed for consumption by other humans (not by other AI). Logically this means that any and all AI output is designed, evaluate and delivered on the basis that it serves some human purpose or other. I have seen loads of ChatGPT output that isn't fit for purpose but is posted or used by people who clearly don't know what they are doing and don't even realise that they don't know what they are doing. ChatGPT can't help with that :-)
I actually think we have hit a bit of a bump in the road. The chat AI's only do so much. It still takes a creative, hardworking person pushing the AI. I *do* think there are some really creative people creating systems for normal people to use. Love this blog.
With the rise of ChatGPT, I have become very reluctant to write my next book.
Executive summary: I have fallen on the incentive trap. Damn!