A sudden increase in AI capability suggests a weirder world in our near future
This is a brilliantly mind expanding post.
Who do you know who has been training Chat-GPT3 on their own writings, and are they willing to talk about it?
"there is also evidence that things have slowed down in the last few decades."
There is a lot of talk of Moore's law ending. Do you think it is possible that we have an incredible few years of AI development, but that Moore's law hitting a limit will begin to slow AI progress before we hit AGI?
In other words, is the current AI boom the last hurrah of the current (information processing) technological wave, and we are then waiting for the next technological wave (syntheic biology perhaps) to arrive?
A good one! The abrupt ending suggest that it was ChatGPT which/who wrote this piece…. or this answer. Who knows?…. Who knows if Chat GPT has a sense of humour??
I am guessing you are aware that some of the people behind Singularity are also with Longtermism thinking -- like MacAskill and Bostrom (https://www.vice.com/en/article/z34dm3/prominent-ai-philosopher-and-father-of-longtermism-sent-very-racist-email-to-a-90s-philosophy-listserv) and of course crypto wonder boy Bankman-Fried. Singularity and Longtermism often seem like a nice idea ... if you are a 15-year-old Ayn Rand fan.
One problematic aspect of "accelerating growth" and the impact of "AI" is how you measure such growth. Are you talking about an absolute value or relative growth? Bostrom came up with some bullshit formula like this that lacks any empirical or sociological insight.
Growth in intelligence = optimization power / recalcitrance
what on earth is this??
The ones that really need to play with AI more than anyone are our kids. It always seems with any new technology, the "natives" with that technology are completely next level users compared to people who learn new tech as adults. This was true with PC's, true with the internet, and very true with smartphones.
I noticed the other day that my youngest was asking the google how to spell words to put into a typed search field on his tablet, it occurred to me what a profound use of technology that was, figured out by a 5 year old.
It is now entirely possible for a child to "write" (via AI assist) the very first book they read themselves on their own. At very a fundamental level, everything is different.
Not sure who researched "elevator operator" being only job no longer listed in Census occupation codes. My hunch, "typesetter" also vanished ... and a little digging so far, may confirm that. In any case, your article is insightful and a bit startling, of course. May have to subscribe.