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Shawn Sengupta's avatar

It’s interesting for me that with all of google’s deep pockets and deep bench, the only things we got at yesterday’s announcement was a ChatGPT 3.5 level usable LLM and vaporware that claims to be at or slightly above ChatGPT 4 level. I disagree with Ethan a little about Bing, I forgot to renew my chatGPT 4 account and was stuck with Bing for a few days before I could get back to openAI, it was horrible, shocking really that Microsoft could take the full code and weights of ChatGPT 4 and mess it up as much as they did. I suppose they did it to lighten the model and make it less expensive to run on their side. But still, there’s something about giant companies that for now makes them less than the sum of their parts in this new exploding field.

There are rumors that LLMs are reaching a plateau, no less than Bill Gates recently said that, so maybe that explains why Gemini Ultra is at GPT 4 levels effectively a year after 4 was released. But I think even if the raw power is at some sort of plateau, there are plenty of little “tricks” left to keep progress going for years, just as we saw over the past 15 years as Moore’s Law collapsed but progress continued through multiple cores and the cloud etc. We can see the integration of video from the ground up into training sets, we can see multiple LLMs handing off to each other somewhat reminiscent of what has happened with multiple processors on single devices and the cloud. We can see bigger and persistent (as has already happened with customizable GPTs at openAI) context windows acting as memory. OpenAI has already gotten way better at integrating search and math stuff, with the same base model. And there are rumors they made a breakthrough in native math (and hence reasoning and planning) ability with a internal model called Q*

This is all super interesting for me and I’m an accelerationist, but I have a feeling that 5-10 years from now when the future I’m thinking of arrives, I will find myself deeply sad that many of the things I prided myself on as a person, will have been massively devalued and commodified.

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Harshvardhan's avatar

A good summary! I’d also add Phind to the list which has beat GPT-4 on all “programming” benchmarks, is much faster and available for free. I use it often for debugging.

Coincidentally, I wrote a short blog on ChatGPT alternatives and like your list, Bard doesn’t make the cut.

https://www.harsh17.in/four-ai-chatbots-other-than-chatgpt/

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